Early in the morning on January 22, 2019, actors Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross announced the nominees for the 91st Academy Awards. Here’s a look ahead at the nominees, snubs, and potential winners ahead of the actual ceremony airing this Sunday, February 24.

*Note: my predictions are in ​bold ​and my preferred winners are ​underlined

Best Picture

Nominees:​ Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody,​ The Favourite,​ Green Book, Roma,​ A Star is Born, Vice

2018 marked an interesting year for movies, especially those in the awards circuit from their release. Critical darlings like ​First Reformed​ and ​Eighth Grade​ received nominations and wins in various other awards circles, but were snubbed at the Oscars in favor of crowd pleasers like Bohemian Rhapsody​, ​Green Book​, and ​Vice​.

Additionally, this year’s Oscars marks the first time a superhero movie has been nominated for the top prize of the night, with Marvel’s ​Black Panther​ becoming the first superhero movie to earn that distinction. With its social impact and high success at the box office, it’s inclusion in the nominees was almost guaranteed, but a win is much less likely.

Instead, the category should narrow down to a race between ​The Favourite and ​Roma​. Though there isn’t a very clear frontrunner, ​Roma​ does seem to have a slight lead, with multiple Best Picture wins from other awards shows and lots of critical praise. Nevertheless, the outcome will remain unclear until the presenters open the envelope onstage Sunday night.

Best Director

Nominees: Spike Lee, Paweł Pawlikowski, ​Yorgos Lanthimos​, ​Alfonso Cuarón​, Adam McKay

Spike Lee received his first Best Director nomination after nearly three decades in the business with his biting commentary on race, ​BlacKkKlansman​, though it is unlikely the veteran director will meet success in his first year. Instead, it looks like the honor will go to Alfonso Cuarón, who won the award back in 2014 for ​Gravity​. If Cuarón wins again, it’ll mean five of the last six Best Directors were of Mexican descent. Also interesting to note is the inclusion of Paweł Pawlikowski, director of the Polish language film ​Cold War.​ This is one of the rare years in which multiple foreign language directors have been nominated in the category, though Pawlikowski will likely lose to fellow foreign language director Cuarón, who will look to repeat Guillermo Del Toro’s dual wins in the Best Picture and Best Director categories from last year.

Best Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Willem Dafoe, ​Rami Malek​, Viggo Mortensen

With all but one of the nominees playing actual people, this category looks to be reinforcing the stereotype of the Academy only nominating actors playing historical figures, leaving actors like Ethan Hawke of ​First Reformed​ behind. There’s also a step backward in the Academy’s quest to recognize diversity after last year featured multiple black nominees in this category for the first time in the show’s history, as once again, the category features five white men, ignoring performances like John David Washington’s role in​ BlacKkKlansman.​ Putting all of that aside, Rami Malek’s transformative performance as Freddie Mercury in the Queen biopic ​Bohemian Rhapsody​ should earn him the win in this category the same way it has at most other awards shows.

Best Actress

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, ​Glenn Close​, ​Olivia Colman​, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy

Though ​Roma​ has been the frontrunner in most of its nominated categories thus far, newcomer Yalitza Aparicio isn’t as likely to win this category as several of the other veteran actresses nominated alongside her. Olivia Colman’s role as the deranged Queen Anne was a treat to watch in ​The Favourite​, but after losing the award in her hometown during the BAFTAS, the award will likely go to Glen Close, who has been nominated six times previously without a loss, tying the record for most nominations without a win in this category. Her role as the titular character in ​The Wife​ will likely carry her to her first victory in the category.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: ​Mahershala Ali​, Adam Driver, Sam Elliot, Richard E. Grant, Sam Rockwell

Mahershal Ali’s performance in ​Green Book​ was essentially sharing the lead with Viggo Mortenson, but with Universal Pictures running his awards campaign, the performance was labeled as a supporting role, leading to his nomination in the category. His subtle and composed performance as Don Shirley in the film should carry him to a win in an already competitive field, though he does deserve the win for playing what was essentially a lead role.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams, Marina De Tavira, ​Regina King​, ​Emma Stone​, Rachel Weisz

The Favourite​ is nominated twice in the category, and deservedly so. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz both turned in near-career best performances as two royals vying for the position of favourite in Queen Anne’s court. Stone’s performance slightly edges out Weisz’s with a delightfully devilish against-type character in the film, though its very likely neither will end up with the award by the end of the night. Instead, Regina King’s impressive performance in the heart-wrenching ​If Beale Street Could Talk​ will likely earn her the win, and deservedly so. After winning the award at several other awards shows already, it’s very likely that King will repeat that success here.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: ​The Favourite​, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice

The screenplay category isn’t always a mirror of the Best Picture winner, and this year appears to be no different. ​The Favourite ​ leaned far more heavily on its script than ​Roma​, and with well written, sharp dialogue, this dramatic adaptation of true events should win the award for Best Original Screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: ​The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, B​lacKkKlansman​, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Star Is Born

Spike Lee is a very accomplished writer, having been nominated for the Best Original Screenplay award in 1990 as well, and his sharp script for BlacKkKlansman should win him the award this year, nearly two decades after his previous nomination.

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees:​ Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, S​pider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Early in the year, it may have appeared that ​Incredibles 2​ was a lock for this award. Disney and Pixar’s success in this category is legendary, and ​Incredibles 2​ had a lot going for it, including great looking animation, critical success, a strong box office, and lots of love from the audience. However, when ​Into The Spider-Verse​ came out in mid-December, all that went out the window. The bright eye-popping visuals looked as though they had been ripped straight from the pages of a comic book. Add a heartwarming story and a fantastic score and soundtrack to the mix, and Into The Spider-Verse​ should be a guaranteed lock for this category.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:​ Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away,​ Roma,​ Shoplifters

It was a banner year for foreign language films, with many foreign language films appearing on most critics end of year lists. This category appears to have the clearest frontrunner, however, with ​Roma​ also being a Best Picture nominee, elevating it above all of the other films in this category. ​Cold War​ may stand a slight chance, with its Best Director nomination adding to its accolades, but after considering the fact that ​Roma​ is also the most nominated film of the night, the winner seems all the more clear.

Best Original Score

Nominees: ​Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, ​If Beale Street Could Talk,​ Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

All the nominees in this category stand a decent chance at winning the award, and all of them cover different genres. ​Black Panther b​roke the Marvel movie score curse with an African inspired delivery of bombast and emotion, though this award will likely go to ​If Beale Street Could Talk​, which features a beautiful score from Nicholas Britell that perfectly matches up with the movie’s subject matter.

Best Original Song

Nominees: ​“All The Stars,”​ “I’ll Fight,” “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” ​“Shallow”,​ “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”

When ​Black Panther​ came out in February of last year, the fantastic soundtrack curated by Kendrick Lamar that accompanied the release received plenty of critical acclaim, and many believed it would lead the singer-songwriter to an Oscar nomination. Fast forward one year, and that prophecy has come true, though he likely won’t win the award, as the Lady Gaga smash “Shallow” has been the clear frontrunner for this award since the release of the movie’s first trailer. A powerful ballad that feels intimate while at the same time sweeping viewers up in the scene, “Shallow” is almost guaranteed to win this category.